A quantitative model to analyze the impact of flooding and congestion on cities: Case study for the city of Rotterdam

Description

Objectives

The paper develops a dynamic city model focused on the quantitative analysis of city processes and the effects of either adaptive policy-making or doing nothing in regard to infrastructure and public works on city development. We describe a system dynamics city model which integrates, inter alia, land use, the influence of business sectors, housing, jobs and governmental funding. City-specific influences, such as real estate cycles and the influences of demand on land pricing, are also included. The policy-making focuses on pluvial flooding, transportation (road congestion), and the investment in adaptation measures for each of those.

Data and methodology

A quantitative dynamic sity model has been developed and data has been collected for the city of Rotterdam. Four scenarios are set up, based on the expected size of flooding and congestion for the city of Rotterdam, and two more scenarios are set up, based on the impact of unexpected events (Black Swan scenarios), to illustrate the impact of these kind of unexpected events.

Expected results

It is concluded that, for both flooding and congestion, the implementation of protection/mitigation measures for the expected sizes of flooding and congestion is the most cost-efficient. This also holds for the combination of these two scenarios. The results show that, for Rotterdam, each scenario affects the direct city outputs, but the self-regulating behavior of the city adjusts the long-term development towards the scenario without the event. This indicates the present adaptive capacity of the city of Rotterdam. The results also indicate that the implementation of adaptation/mitigation measures proves most efficient for the economic added value compared to do-nothing strategies.

Period	13 Jul 2016
Event title	14th World Conference on Transport Research
Event type	Conference
Conference number	14
Location	Shanghai, China