Description
While spatial planners are increasingly asking for measures to foster the circular economy (CE), it remains vague how to territorialize the CE. Because of for example reshoring, almost certain is that (re)manufacturing will demand more space. Yet, if these are not specified, such remanufacturing planning loses from more concrete agendas in the daily planning process. Especially in urban environments, where the pressure to redevelop industrial land for residential/commercial purposes is high, knowledge on the (future) CE-value of industrial sites is valuable to counter – if necessary - such redevelopments. This paper zooms in on the Dutch province of Zuid-Holland (PZH), a typical case of such planning conflict. Our methodology combines fore- and backcasting. We explain that such combination is necessary to first develop concrete insights resulting from an extrapolation of the current, but second at the same time avoids the so-called ‘fallacy of extrapolation’. For the forecasting, we develop a new methodology combining AIS-shipping route data with a functional mapping of industrial areas. The back-casting is performed by developing four scenarios, this to reveal the different alternative CE images for PZH. Our results show that the current PZH spatial economic structure and planning systems are vulnerable for a lock-in following they are fostering the ‘globalized open world’. This is only safe if there is a business-as-usual towards the future. However, our three other scenarios show a deglobalizing, in which the value of urban industrial areas increases significantly. We conclude with concrete spatial planning recommendations and theoretical and methodological insights.Specifically, we look at the CE-value of water bound industrial areas for two reasons: first, these areas are more prone to residential redeveloping following their ‘waterfront real estate value’; second, our assumption is that water bound transport and activities will be important in a CE characterized by more local back-and-forth logistics between consumer and (re)producer. We propose a combination of fore- and backcasting.
We explain that such combination is necessary to first develop concrete insights resulting from an extrapolation of the current, but second at the same time avoids the so-called ‘fallacy of extrapolation’. For the forecasting, we develop a new methodology combining AIS-shipping route data with spatial mapping of firms and industrial areas, this to extrapolate the current (non-)use of water bound transport. The back-casting is performed by assessing drivers related to CE and spatial economic planning in four scenarios, this to reveal the different alternative CE images for PZH. The results show that the PZH spatial economic structure and planning systems are vulnerable for a lock-in. The current structure and dominant planning processes are specialized to foster the ‘globalised open world’ scenario, that arguably would be a continuation of the business-as-usual. However, regarding all other three scenarios, that build on (partly) deglobalization, the PZH spatial planning should preserve today the existing water bound industrial areas and more actively foster the (potential) CE functions to emerge there. We conclude with concrete spatial planning recommendations for PZH, as well as theoretical and conceptual reflections on the territorialization of the CE.
| Period | 15 Jun 2023 |
|---|---|
| Event title | Regional Sciences Association Annual Conference 2023 Ljubljana: Transforming Regions: Policies and Planning for People and Places |
| Event type | Conference |
| Location | Ljubljana, SloveniaShow on map |
| Degree of Recognition | International |