TY - JOUR
T1 - North Atlantic Cooling is Slowing Down Mass Loss of Icelandic Glaciers
AU - Noël, Brice
AU - Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna
AU - Pálsson, Finnur
AU - Wouters, Bert
AU - Lhermitte, Stef
AU - Haacker, Jan M.
AU - van den Broeke, Michiel R.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.
AB - Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.
KW - Blue Blob
KW - climate projection
KW - glaciers
KW - Iceland
KW - RACMO
KW - surface mass balance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125035720&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2021GL095697
DO - 10.1029/2021GL095697
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85125035720
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 49
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 3
M1 - e2021GL095697
ER -