3D numerical analyses for the quantitative risk assessment of subsidence and water flood due to the partial collapse of an abandoned gypsum mine.

After the abandonment occurred in the '70s, the mining system (rooms and pillars) located in S. Lazzaro di Savena (BO, Italy), grown on three levels with the method rooms and pillars, has been progressively more and more affected by degradation processes due to water infiltration. The mine is located underneath a residential area causing significant concern to the local municipality. On the basis of in situ surveys, laboratory and in situ geomechanical tests, some critical scenarios were adopted in the analyses to simulate the progressive collapse of pillars and of roofs in the most critical sectors of the mine. A first set of numerical analyses using 3D geotechnical FEM codes were performed to predict the extension of the subsidence area and its interaction with buildings. Secondly 3D CFD analyses were used to evaluated the amount of water that could be eventually ejected outside the mine and eventually flooding the downstream village. The predicted extension of the subsidence area together with the predicted amount of the ejected water have been used to design possible remedial measurements.