TY - JOUR
T1 - A hierarchical Bayesian multivariate ordered model of distracted drivers’ decision to initiate risk-compensating behaviour
AU - Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar
AU - Afghari, Amir Pooyan
AU - Haque, Md Mazharul
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Mobile phone distracted drivers have been reported to initiate risk-compensating behaviour depending on a multitude of factors such as roadway environment and traffic characteristics, personal demographics and psychological attributes, and mobile phone task characteristics. However, the complexities of drivers’ decisions in engaging in such behaviour are not well known. This study aims to fill this gap by developing a comprehensive multivariate ordered model in Bayesian framework for risk-compensating behaviour of distracted drivers. The multivariate setting captures the common unobserved factors between multiple types of risk-compensating behaviour. In addition, an instrumental variable is employed to account for the endogeneity between crash risk and driving behaviour. To capture the varying effects of exogenous factors as well as varying propensity of initiating risk-compensating behaviour, the model is specified with grouped random parameters and random thresholds. This model is then empirically tested by data from a survey, which was specifically designed to understand the risk-compensating behaviour of mobile phone distracted drivers in Queensland, Australia. Results indicate that the grouped random parameters random thresholds ordered model has a substantially improved fit compared to its fixed parameters/fixed thresholds counterparts, indicating that the unobserved heterogeneity is significant, both in the effects of exogenous factors and in the propensity of initiating risk-compensating behaviour. It is found that drivers’ decisions to engage in different types of risk-compensating behaviour are correlated, indicating that they generally initiate different types of risk-compensating strategies simultaneously. Overall, the perceived crash risk has been found to increase the likelihood of risk-compensating behaviour among distracted drivers. Demanding secondary tasks and complex road traffic environment are also found to initiate risk-compensating behaviours such as increasing headway, reducing driving speed and visual scanning of the surrounding environment.
AB - Mobile phone distracted drivers have been reported to initiate risk-compensating behaviour depending on a multitude of factors such as roadway environment and traffic characteristics, personal demographics and psychological attributes, and mobile phone task characteristics. However, the complexities of drivers’ decisions in engaging in such behaviour are not well known. This study aims to fill this gap by developing a comprehensive multivariate ordered model in Bayesian framework for risk-compensating behaviour of distracted drivers. The multivariate setting captures the common unobserved factors between multiple types of risk-compensating behaviour. In addition, an instrumental variable is employed to account for the endogeneity between crash risk and driving behaviour. To capture the varying effects of exogenous factors as well as varying propensity of initiating risk-compensating behaviour, the model is specified with grouped random parameters and random thresholds. This model is then empirically tested by data from a survey, which was specifically designed to understand the risk-compensating behaviour of mobile phone distracted drivers in Queensland, Australia. Results indicate that the grouped random parameters random thresholds ordered model has a substantially improved fit compared to its fixed parameters/fixed thresholds counterparts, indicating that the unobserved heterogeneity is significant, both in the effects of exogenous factors and in the propensity of initiating risk-compensating behaviour. It is found that drivers’ decisions to engage in different types of risk-compensating behaviour are correlated, indicating that they generally initiate different types of risk-compensating strategies simultaneously. Overall, the perceived crash risk has been found to increase the likelihood of risk-compensating behaviour among distracted drivers. Demanding secondary tasks and complex road traffic environment are also found to initiate risk-compensating behaviours such as increasing headway, reducing driving speed and visual scanning of the surrounding environment.
KW - Bayesian inference
KW - Cellphone
KW - Distracted driving
KW - Driver behaviour
KW - Endogeneity
KW - Grouped random parameter
KW - Mobile phone
KW - Multivariate ordered response model
KW - Random thresholds
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85081018598&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.amar.2020.100121
DO - 10.1016/j.amar.2020.100121
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85081018598
SN - 2213-6657
VL - 26
JO - Analytic Methods in Accident Research
JF - Analytic Methods in Accident Research
M1 - 100121
ER -