TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term rogue wave occurrence probability from historical wave data on a spatial scale relevant for spar-type floating wind turbines
AU - Nederkoorn, T. P.
AU - Seyffert, H. C.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Very large waves, such as rogue waves, can be dangerous for ships and offshore structures. There is no consensus on the theoretical occurrence probability of these rogues and ocean measurements containing rogue waves are rare. This paper addresses the long-term occurrence probability of rogue waves using time-extreme (TE) and space–time extreme (STE) statistical wave models, evaluated with a significant amount of historical directional wave data from Monterey Bay, California, USA. A novel understanding of these models is obtained by exploring the area size for which the STE models estimate a higher rogue wave occurrence probability compared to the TE models. For four rogue wave and crest heights the return periods until a 95% rogue wave occurrence probability are estimated. To illustrate an application of this statistical analysis, the risk of rogue waves to a spar-type floating wind turbine is evaluated. Based on both the dynamic response and the long-term occurrence probability of the rogue wave, this research presents a new and advanced approach for a risk analysis of rogue waves to floating offshore structures.
AB - Very large waves, such as rogue waves, can be dangerous for ships and offshore structures. There is no consensus on the theoretical occurrence probability of these rogues and ocean measurements containing rogue waves are rare. This paper addresses the long-term occurrence probability of rogue waves using time-extreme (TE) and space–time extreme (STE) statistical wave models, evaluated with a significant amount of historical directional wave data from Monterey Bay, California, USA. A novel understanding of these models is obtained by exploring the area size for which the STE models estimate a higher rogue wave occurrence probability compared to the TE models. For four rogue wave and crest heights the return periods until a 95% rogue wave occurrence probability are estimated. To illustrate an application of this statistical analysis, the risk of rogue waves to a spar-type floating wind turbine is evaluated. Based on both the dynamic response and the long-term occurrence probability of the rogue wave, this research presents a new and advanced approach for a risk analysis of rogue waves to floating offshore structures.
KW - Dynamic response
KW - Historical wave data
KW - Occurrence probability
KW - Rogue waves
KW - Spar-type floating wind turbine
KW - Statistical wave models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85126552681&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110955
DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110955
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85126552681
SN - 0029-8018
VL - 251
JO - Ocean Engineering
JF - Ocean Engineering
M1 - 110955
ER -