A classification of the long-distance travel market

Long-distance travel contributes significantly to climate change. One of the mitigation options is a shift to more sustainable modes. An efficient policy on modal choice demands knowledge on which market segments are promising for a mode. The paper describes a method for breaking down the travel market into segments that are homogeneous with respect to the appropriateness of a mode for the travellers; the method is applied to all typical long-distance modes. The appropriateness of a mode depends on the demanded standards and the extent the standards of a mode meets the demand. A number of variables that define the appropriateness are identified, and by crossing the most important variables a large number of small, elementary market segments are defined. These are building stones for the mode-specific larger segments with a certain standard of a mode. Based on the explanatory power of a variable for modal choice and the standard of a mode for journeys in the variable category, a standard score of each mode is calculated for each elementary segment. Segments where the score of a mode compared to the score of the best performing alternative is similar (that is: within defined limits) are clustered into one of five segments with a certain standard of the mode. Some results: the proportion of long-distance journeys where a mode has at least a comparable standard is 79% for the car, 60% for the train, and 30% for the airplane. Expressed in mileage, the proportions are 40%, 33%, and 75% respectively.