A combined probabilistic-fuzzy approach for dynamic modeling of traffic in smart cities: Handling imprecise and uncertain traffic data

Humans and autonomous vehicles will jointly use the roads in smart cities. Therefore, it is a requirement for autonomous vehicles to properly handle the information and uncertainties that are introduced by humans (e.g., drivers, pedestrians, traffic managers) into the traffic, to accordingly make proper decisions. Such information is commonly available as linguistic, fuzzy (non-quantified) terms. Thus, we need mathematical modeling approaches that, at the same time, handle mixed (i.e., quantified and non-quantified) data. For this, we introduce novel type-2 sets and membership functions to translate such mixed traffic data into mathematical concepts that handle different levels and types of uncertainties and that can undergo mathematical operations. Next, we propose rule-based data processing and modeling approaches to exploit the advantages of these sets. This is inspired by the rule-based reasoning of humans, which has proven to be very effective and efficient in various applications, especially in traffic. The resulting models, hence, handle more than one level and type of uncertainty, which results in precise estimations of traffic dynamics that are comparable in accuracy with similar analyses if only one level of uncertainty (either probabilistic or fuzzy) would exist in the dataset. This will significantly improve the analysis, prediction, management, and safety of traffic in future smart cities.