A Complex Systems Approach to Modeling and Analysis of Security and Resilience in Air Transport

The importance of security has been increasingly recognized in the area of air transport. However, formal, mathematical, and computational approaches to modeling and analysis of security, in particular of its physical dimension (e.g., security of airports), are currently largely lacking. To address this gap, in this presentation a formal methodology for systematic security risk assessment of air transport sociotechnical systems is introduced. To handle environmental uncertainty and to provide a resilient response to disruptions, modern complex air transport systems combine elements of hierarchical top-down control and bottom-up self-organization. General Systems Theory is useful to model hierarchical systems, whereas Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and its prominent tool – multiagent systems modeling – are well-suited to describe self-organization and bottom-up emergence. In the proposed methodology both theories are integrated to realistically represent and analyze by simulation security- and resilience-related aspects of sociotechnical systems in air transport. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in airport security.