A Graph-based, Probabilistic Framework for Novel Aerospace Technology Evaluation and Selection

Technology selection is ubiquitous in all manners of complex systems engineering, design and everyday business operations. Technologies are often complex entities shrouded in uncertainty, assumptions and interpretation. Therefore, quantifying their effect (i.e. outcome) becomes challenging for several reasons. First, as simulations may not be available for novel technologies, experts have to estimate their impacts. Secondly, as the technologies may not be well-defined, different experts have different interpretations and will assign different outcomes. Thirdly, even if analysis methods are available, there is epistemic and model uncertainty in the outcome. Finally, available analysis frameworks are typically application-specific, non-extensible and inflexible. It is the objective of this thesis to pave the way towards a technology selection methodology that offers a structured, repeatable and traceable way to represent technologies and consecutively quantify their impacts on an engineering system. Such a methodology is implemented as a decision support system, i.e. a computer program that assists a decision maker throughout the decision-making process. Three components of said methodology can be identified: technology representation and portfolio generation, technology (portfolio) evaluation and technology (portfolio) selection...