A high-deck coach evacuation model framework: Behavioural modelling, numerical analyses and insights

Evacuation from transportation tools is receiving increasing attention due to its high risk and complexity. However, as a crucial travel mode, high-deck coaches, have been overlooked, lacking a dedicated evacuation model, let alone exploratory simulation analyses. This work proposes an innovative high-deck coach evacuation model framework, where three intertwined modules are developed to separately delineate the strategic, tactical and operational passenger evacuation behaviours. In the strategic behaviour module, the Cox-Weibull hazard duration model is introduced to capture the pre-evacuation times of passengers so that both the distribution characteristics and the dependence on the proximity to the target exit are encapsulated. In the tactical and operational behaviour modules, elaborate behavioural rules are designed and coupled with Cumulative Prospect Theory to comprehensively incorporate the typical behavioural characteristics and decision-making factors of passengers. The framework is validated with empirical data from various scenarios and proven to significantly outperform the state-of-the-art passenger evacuation model. It is found that the CWM substantially improves the prediction accuracy of the framework compared with the Weibull probabilistic distribution. Overtaking behaviour significantly affects passenger evacuations, but does not induce any benefit for the overall system. This study offers valuable tools and insights for high-deck coach evacuation simulation and management.