TY - JOUR
T1 - A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process for analyzing decisions over converting a containership to LNG power
AU - Kana, Austin A.
AU - Harrison, B.M.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) is presented for analyzing whether a container ship should convert to LNG power in the face of evolving Emission Control Area regulations. The SC-MDP model was originally developed as a means to analyze uncertain, sequential decision making problems. However, the original model is limited in its handling of uncertainty by only using discrete probabilistic values to account for the uncertainty. This paper extends the model to include Monte Carlo simulations to gain a deeper understanding of how uncertainty affects decision making behavior. A case study is presented involving the impact of evolving Emission Control Areas on the design and operation of a notional 13,000 TEU container ship. The decision of whether to invest in a dual fuel LNG engine is analyzed given uncertainties in economic parameters, regulatory scenarios, and supply chain risks. The case study is used to show how variations in uncertain parameters can have a drastic effect on optimal decision strategies.
AB - A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) is presented for analyzing whether a container ship should convert to LNG power in the face of evolving Emission Control Area regulations. The SC-MDP model was originally developed as a means to analyze uncertain, sequential decision making problems. However, the original model is limited in its handling of uncertainty by only using discrete probabilistic values to account for the uncertainty. This paper extends the model to include Monte Carlo simulations to gain a deeper understanding of how uncertainty affects decision making behavior. A case study is presented involving the impact of evolving Emission Control Areas on the design and operation of a notional 13,000 TEU container ship. The decision of whether to invest in a dual fuel LNG engine is analyzed given uncertainties in economic parameters, regulatory scenarios, and supply chain risks. The case study is used to show how variations in uncertain parameters can have a drastic effect on optimal decision strategies.
KW - Decision making
KW - Emission Control Area
KW - LNG
KW - Markov decision process
KW - Monte Carlo simulation
KW - Uncertainty analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85000718003&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.11.042
DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.11.042
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85000718003
SN - 0029-8018
VL - 130
SP - 40
EP - 48
JO - Ocean Engineering
JF - Ocean Engineering
ER -