A multi hazard RISK assessment methodology accounting for cascading hazard events

Mairéad Ní Choine, Alan O'Connor, Pierre Gehl, Dina D'Ayala, Mariano García-Fernández, María José Jiménez, Kenneth Gavin, Pieter Van Gelder, Teresa Salceda, Richard Power

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The INFRARISK project is developing reliable stress tests on European Critical Infrastructure using integrated tools for decision-support. This aims to achieve higher infrastructure network resilience to rare and low probability extreme events. As part of the project, a hazard assessment methodology is developed to account for extreme natural hazards with cascading effects. Often hazard scenarios arising from cascading effects lead to disastrous consequences because such hazards are not prepared for. In particular, this paper focuses on the cascading hazard scenario involving earthquake triggered landslides. Traditional risk analysis considers each risk source as independent from the others. As a consequence, values for risk are usually defined regardless of interactions among the multiple risks present in a region. The current approach accounts for interaction between the two hazards in such a way that the probabilities of occurrence can be aggregated as part of an overall risk assessment methodology. The methodology is then demonstrated on a virtual road network case study as a proof of concept.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
    PublisherUniversity of British Columbia
    ISBN (Electronic)9780888652454
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    Event12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012 - Vancouver, Canada
    Duration: 12 Jul 201515 Jul 2015

    Conference

    Conference12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012
    CountryCanada
    CityVancouver
    Period12/07/1515/07/15

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