A Reliability Prediction Methodology for LED Arrays

Bo Sun, Jiajie Fan, Xuejun Fan, Guoqi Zhang, Guohao Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
127 Downloads (Pure)


In this paper, a physics of failure-based prediction method is combined with statistical models to consider the impact of current crowding and current droop effects on the reliability of LED arrays. Electronic-thermal models of LEDs are utilized to obtain the operation conditions under the influences of current crowding and current droop. A Markov chain-based model is used to calculate the probability distribution of each failure mode, including the lumen decay and catastrophic failure. Two types of LEDs were selected for a numerical study. The proposed prediction method provides the realistic reliability prediction results. It is found that the properties of LEDs have a great impact on their hazard rates of LED arrays. The equivalent resistance, third-order non-radiative coefficient, and radiative coefficient of LEDs are critical to the reliability of an LED array.

Original languageEnglish
Article number8600302
Pages (from-to)8127-8134
Number of pages8
JournalIEEE Access
Publication statusPublished - 2019


  • Catastrophic failure
  • electronic-thermal model
  • LED array
  • Markov chain
  • reliability prediction


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