A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice

Mengxia Li, Junmin Mou, Linying Chen, Yixiong He, Yamin Huang*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)


Conflict detection is a vital step of collision prevention at sea, determining if there is a risk of collision and when to take preventing actions. This article proposes a practical Rule-aware Time-varying Conflict Risk (R-TCR) for ship collision avoidance. Considering maritime practice, the conflict risk measure takes the ship maneuverability, the COLREGs, and good seamanship into account in the conflict risk measure. Specifically, the conflict risk is formulated as a ratio of achievable maneuvers leading to a collision to all achievable maneuvers. Simulations are carried out to show the characteristics of R-TCR. The results show that the R-TCR evaluates the entire conflict risk incorporating COLREG rules, multiple targets, different maneuverability, and varying ship domains. Finally, the proposed measure is applied to analyze the collision accident between two ships. Compared with the conventional risk indicators, the proposed R-TCR can deliver extra information to users, such as providing early warning, showing the room-for-maneuver, and suggesting evasive actions. Besides, the extra information also supports collision avoidance for autonomous ships. 

Original languageEnglish
Article number107816
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Publication statusPublished - 2021


  • Collision avoidance
  • COLREG rules
  • Conflict risk
  • Maneuverability
  • Ship domain
  • TCR


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