A stochastic process based reliability prediction method for LED driver

Bo Sun, Xuejun Fan*, Willem van Driel, Chengqiang Cui, Guo Qi Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
25 Downloads (Pure)


In this study, we present a general methodology that combines the reliability theory with physics of failure for reliability prediction of an LED driver. More specifically, an integrated LED lamp, which includes an LED light source with statistical distribution of luminous flux, and a driver with a few critical components, is considered. The Wiener process is introduced to describe the randomness of lumen depreciation. The driver's survival probability is described using a general Markov Chain method. The system compact thermal model (physics of failure model) is developed to couple with the reliability methods used. Two scenarios are studied: Scenario S1 considers constant driver's operation temperature, while Scenario S2 considers driver's temperature rise due to lumen depreciation. It has been found that the wide life distribution of LEDs will lead to a large range of the driver's survival probability. The proposed analysis provides a general approach for an electronic system to integrate the reliability method with physics models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)140-146
Number of pages7
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • LED driver
  • LED lamp
  • Lumen depreciation
  • Reliability prediction
  • Stochastic process


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