A Tractable Stochastic Model of Correlated Link Failures Caused by Disasters

János Tapolcai, Balazs Vass, Zalan Heszberger, Jozsef Biro, David Hay, Fernando A. Kuipers, Lajos Ronyai

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)
54 Downloads (Pure)


In order to evaluate the expected availability of a service, a network administrator should consider all possible failure scenarios under the specific service availability model stipulated in the corresponding service-level agreement. Given the increase in natural disasters and malicious attacks with geographically extensive impact, considering only independent single link failures is often insufficient. In this paper, we build a stochastic model of geographically correlated link failures caused by disasters, in order to estimate the hazards a network may be prone to, and to understand the complex correlation between possible link failures. With such a model, one can quickly extract information, such as the probability of an arbitrary set of links to fail simultaneously, the probability of two nodes to be disconnected, the probability of a path to survive a failure, etc. Furthermore, we introduce a pre-computation process, which enables us to succinctly represent the joint probability distribution of link failures. In particular, we generate, in polynomial time, a quasilinear-sized data structure, with which the joint failure probability of any set of links can be computed efficiently.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationINFOCOM 2018 - IEEE Conference on Computer Communications
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5386-4128-6
ISBN (Print)978-1-5386-4129-3
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event2018 IEEE Conference on Computer Communications, INFOCOM 2018 - Honolulu, United States
Duration: 15 Apr 201819 Apr 2018


Conference2018 IEEE Conference on Computer Communications, INFOCOM 2018
CountryUnited States

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