TY - JOUR
T1 - African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
AU - Vousdoukas, Michalis I.
AU - Clarke, Joanne
AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka
AU - Reimann, Lena
AU - Khalaf, Nadia
AU - Duong, Trang Minh
AU - Ouweneel, Birgitt
AU - Sabour, Salma
AU - Iles, Carley E.
AU - More Authors, null
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.
AB - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85124552785&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85124552785
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 12
SP - 256
EP - 262
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 3
ER -
