TY - JOUR
T1 - Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms
AU - Ovidi, Federica
AU - Zhang, Laobing
AU - Landucci, Gabriele
AU - Reniers, Genserik
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - The growing trend of interconnecting two or more chemical process or storage facilities represents a critical safety issue, since an accident can easily escalate from an industrial establishment to the nearby plants resulting in a domino effect. However, common safety analyses often ignore cascading events in chemical tank farms, their complex and transient evolution, and mitigation effects of add-on safety measures. The aim of the present work is to develop a structured approach for the assessment of complex domino events accounting for the influence of safety barriers. The approach is based on the adoption of Agent-based Model and Simulation for the assessment of Domino effect in presence of add-on Protections (DAMS-P). For the first time, the assessment of mitigated cascading events in chemical tank farms is carried out accounting for the transient evolution of multiple scenarios and related synergistic effects, and the effect of safety barriers and their possible time-dependent degradation. A verification of DAMS-P is firstly performed through the comparison against analytic probability evaluation based on event tree analysis and tested through the application of industrial cases. The results obtained constitute a useful support for decision-making and for the identification of critical barriers and their performance evaluation.
AB - The growing trend of interconnecting two or more chemical process or storage facilities represents a critical safety issue, since an accident can easily escalate from an industrial establishment to the nearby plants resulting in a domino effect. However, common safety analyses often ignore cascading events in chemical tank farms, their complex and transient evolution, and mitigation effects of add-on safety measures. The aim of the present work is to develop a structured approach for the assessment of complex domino events accounting for the influence of safety barriers. The approach is based on the adoption of Agent-based Model and Simulation for the assessment of Domino effect in presence of add-on Protections (DAMS-P). For the first time, the assessment of mitigated cascading events in chemical tank farms is carried out accounting for the transient evolution of multiple scenarios and related synergistic effects, and the effect of safety barriers and their possible time-dependent degradation. A verification of DAMS-P is firstly performed through the comparison against analytic probability evaluation based on event tree analysis and tested through the application of industrial cases. The results obtained constitute a useful support for decision-making and for the identification of critical barriers and their performance evaluation.
KW - Agent-based modelling
KW - Chemical tank farm
KW - Computational experiments
KW - Domino effect
KW - Process safety
KW - Safety barriers
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099687044&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107476
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107476
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85099687044
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 209
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 107476
ER -