Agent-based Modeling Automated: Data-driven Generation of Innovation Diffusion Models

Thorben Jensen, Emile Chappin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

Simulation modeling is useful to gain insights into driving mechanisms of diffusion of innovations. This study aims to introduce automation to make identification of such mechanisms with agent-based simulation modeling less costly in time and labor. We present a novel automation procedure in which the generation of diffusion models is automated. It comprises three phases: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out be the user; (2) automated inverse modeling of decision models from a decision model library for their capability of explaining these data; (3) policy simulation automatically assesses user-chosen policy interventions in their potential of influencing the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure. We applied this tool to data-analysis on the diffusion of a sustainable innovation, water-saving showerheads. The proposed procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained available diffusion data. This provided a proof of concept. Further, it progresses agent-based modeling by providing model validation by design and by enabling detailed bottom-down modeling at the lower complexity of top-down modeling. We believe the proposed approach can widen the circle of persons that can use simulation modeling and better understand and shape innovation.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Pages1-8
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Toulouse, France
Duration: 10 Jul 201614 Jul 2016
Conference number: 8
http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2016

Conference

Conference8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Abbreviated titleiEMSs
CountryFrance
CityToulouse
Period10/07/1614/07/16
Internet address

Keywords

  • Agent-based modeling
  • automation
  • innovation diffusion
  • data-analysis
  • policy simulation

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