An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

J. J. Zwaginga; J. F.J. Pruyn

doi:10.5957/IMDC-2022-252

An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

J. J. Zwaginga, J. F.J. Pruyn

Ship Design, Production and Operations

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

20 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.

Original language	English
Number of pages	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5957/IMDC-2022-252
Publication status	Published - 2022
Event	SNAME 14th International Marine Design Conference, IMDC 2022 - Vancouver, Canada Duration: 26 Jun 2022 → 30 Jun 2022

Conference

Conference	SNAME 14th International Marine Design Conference, IMDC 2022
Country/Territory	Canada
City	Vancouver
Period	26/06/22 → 30/06/22

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

Adaptability
Energy Transition
Ship Design
Sustainable Fuels
Uncertainty

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.5957/IMDC-2022-252

sname-imdc-2022-252Final published version, 1.17 MB

Cite this

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title = "An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design",

abstract = "The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.",

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AB - The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.

KW - Adaptability

KW - Energy Transition

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KW - Sustainable Fuels

KW - Uncertainty

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ER -

An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

Abstract

Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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