An In-Depth Analysis of Residential E-Cooling Demand in the Netherlands

The magnitude and effect of residential E-cooling demand on the Dutch energy market have not been studied in the literature. However, due to rising temperatures and the increase in the adoption of heat pumps, the effects of residential e-cooling demand are expected to rise sharply in the upcoming decades. First, a thermodynamic model of different Dutch residential buildings described the magnitude and patterns of residential E-cooling. Second, the effects of E-cooling on the distribution network were tested using the IEEE 906-bus European LV network. Third, a country-wide simulation of the effect of residential E-cooling on the energy market was done in Plexos from 2025 to 2050. The results showed a doubling of the cooling demand between 2025 and 2030 and a maximum annual cooling demand of approximately 0.4 TWh. In addition, it was shown how the demand for residential cooling could decrease local power quality when more than 40 % of households actively cool their houses simultaneously, increasing network costs. Finally, it was also proven how power prices could increase due to higher demand and how revenue for specific generation components could double or decrease by 2% during heat waves when accounting for residential E-cooling demand.