TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis of emergency response actions for preventing fire-induced domino effects based on an approach of reversed fuzzy Petri-net
AU - Zhou, Jianfeng
AU - Reniers, Genserik
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - In the chemical process industry, large quantities of different flammable substances are stored in tank farms. Due to potential mutual impacts among the tanks, severe domino accidents may occur after a tank catches fire. The emergency response to a tank fire may influence the development of the accident and impact the occurring of escalating events or so-called domino effects. In this paper, a fuzzy Petri-net (FPN) based reversed reasoning approach is proposed to analyze emergency response actions impacting domino effects. FPN is utilized to deduce the consequence-antecedent relationship between an accident and the emergency response actions. To analyze and compare the impacts of the actions on a domino effect, the backward reasoning is of special interest and often preferable when the occurrence probability of domino effects is known. As a tank fire accident in an oil depot usually lasts for a certain period of time, and as it may be greatly influenced by emergency response actions, it is taken as an example to illustrate the proposed approach.
AB - In the chemical process industry, large quantities of different flammable substances are stored in tank farms. Due to potential mutual impacts among the tanks, severe domino accidents may occur after a tank catches fire. The emergency response to a tank fire may influence the development of the accident and impact the occurring of escalating events or so-called domino effects. In this paper, a fuzzy Petri-net (FPN) based reversed reasoning approach is proposed to analyze emergency response actions impacting domino effects. FPN is utilized to deduce the consequence-antecedent relationship between an accident and the emergency response actions. To analyze and compare the impacts of the actions on a domino effect, the backward reasoning is of special interest and often preferable when the occurrence probability of domino effects is known. As a tank fire accident in an oil depot usually lasts for a certain period of time, and as it may be greatly influenced by emergency response actions, it is taken as an example to illustrate the proposed approach.
KW - Backward reasoning
KW - Chemical process industry
KW - Domino effect
KW - Emergency response
KW - Fuzzy Petri-net
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016066123&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jlp.2017.03.011
DO - 10.1016/j.jlp.2017.03.011
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85016066123
SN - 0950-4230
VL - 47
SP - 169
EP - 173
JO - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
JF - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
ER -