Analysis Tools to Quantify the Variability in Deltaic Geological Models Using Delft3D Simulation Results

The process of constructing geological models is used on various scales in mining, oil and gas exploration, hydrology as well as in large construction projects. Development of geological models is a complex process consisting of various phases. A large degree of uncertainty is introduced from the interpretation of the data to the construction of the geological model. To arrive at the best approximation of the subsurface, relevant analogues are identified and consulted. Therefore, uncertainties originate from unknown depositional processes, but also from uncertain correlation between the study area and the analogues. We developed a set of tools to quantify the variability in deltaic geological models resulting from these uncertainties. These tools were applied to an ensemble of simulations generated in Delft3D by processed-based forward modelling. We show how a set of analyses can be used to quantify the differences in the resultant delta deposits. Analyses investigated channel networks, topographic profiles and sediment distribution in the delta. The tools make use of the unique advantages of numerical forward models, allowing single variables to be studied at high spacial and temporal resolution.