Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents

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Abstract

Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been reliant on experts opinion and thus prone to epistemic uncertainty in addition to aleatory uncertainty originating from randomness of natural disasters. Evidential Network (EN) is a directed acyclic graph based on Dempster-Shafer Theory to explicitly model the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in system safety and reliability assessment. In the present study, we have illustrated an application of EN to handling epistemic uncertainty in risk assessment of flood-induced floatation of storage tanks.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018
PublisherCRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group
Pages2707-2716
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9780815386827
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 - Trondheim, Norway
Duration: 17 Jun 201821 Jun 2018

Conference

Conference28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018
CountryNorway
CityTrondheim
Period17/06/1821/06/18

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