Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents

N. Khakzad; P. H.A.J.M. van Gelder

Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents

Safety and Security Science

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been reliant on experts opinion and thus prone to epistemic uncertainty in addition to aleatory uncertainty originating from randomness of natural disasters. Evidential Network (EN) is a directed acyclic graph based on Dempster-Shafer Theory to explicitly model the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in system safety and reliability assessment. In the present study, we have illustrated an application of EN to handling epistemic uncertainty in risk assessment of flood-induced floatation of storage tanks.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018
Publisher	CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group
Pages	2707-2716
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Print)	9780815386827
Publication status	Published - 2018
Event	28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 - Trondheim, Norway Duration: 17 Jun 2018 → 21 Jun 2018

Conference

Conference	28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018
Country/Territory	Norway
City	Trondheim
Period	17/06/18 → 21/06/18

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10.1201_9781351174664-341Final published version, 1.9 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Khakzad, N., & van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M. (2018). Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. In Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 (pp. 2707-2716). CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group.

Khakzad, N. ; van Gelder, P. H.A.J.M. / Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. pp. 2707-2716

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title = "Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents",

abstract = "Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been reliant on experts opinion and thus prone to epistemic uncertainty in addition to aleatory uncertainty originating from randomness of natural disasters. Evidential Network (EN) is a directed acyclic graph based on Dempster-Shafer Theory to explicitly model the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in system safety and reliability assessment. In the present study, we have illustrated an application of EN to handling epistemic uncertainty in risk assessment of flood-induced floatation of storage tanks.",

author = "N. Khakzad and {van Gelder}, {P. H.A.J.M.}",

year = "2018",

language = "English",

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pages = "2707--2716",

booktitle = "Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018",

publisher = "CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group",

note = "28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 ; Conference date: 17-06-2018 Through 21-06-2018",

}

Khakzad, N & van Gelder, PHAJM 2018, Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. in Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, pp. 2707-2716, 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018, Trondheim, Norway, 17/06/18.

Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. / Khakzad, N.; van Gelder, P. H.A.J.M.
Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. p. 2707-2716.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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AU - Khakzad, N.

AU - van Gelder, P. H.A.J.M.

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N2 - Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been reliant on experts opinion and thus prone to epistemic uncertainty in addition to aleatory uncertainty originating from randomness of natural disasters. Evidential Network (EN) is a directed acyclic graph based on Dempster-Shafer Theory to explicitly model the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in system safety and reliability assessment. In the present study, we have illustrated an application of EN to handling epistemic uncertainty in risk assessment of flood-induced floatation of storage tanks.

AB - Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been reliant on experts opinion and thus prone to epistemic uncertainty in addition to aleatory uncertainty originating from randomness of natural disasters. Evidential Network (EN) is a directed acyclic graph based on Dempster-Shafer Theory to explicitly model the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in system safety and reliability assessment. In the present study, we have illustrated an application of EN to handling epistemic uncertainty in risk assessment of flood-induced floatation of storage tanks.

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BT - Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018

PB - CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group

T2 - 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018

Y2 - 17 June 2018 through 21 June 2018

ER -

Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents

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