Assessing life-cycle seismic fragility of corroding reinforced concrete bridges through dynamic Bayesian networks

F. Molaioni, Z. Rinaldi, C.P. Andriotis

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Bridge structures are exposed to several chronic and abrupt stressors, among which the combined effects of corrosion and earthquakes pose a major threat to their long-term safety. Probabilistic risk assessment frameworks that quantify and propagate uncertainties inherent to these phenomena are necessary to mitigate this threat. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network for state-dependent seismic fragility functions, capturing corrosion and seismic effects over time. Markovian transitions among deterioration states for different bridge components are developed, combining chloride diffusion and corrosion propagation models with non-stationary Gamma processes. State-dependent fragility curves are derived based on non-linear dynamic time-history analyses given possible degradation configurations of the structure, accounting for uncertainties in material, geometry, and deterioration parameters. Record-to-record variability is captured using synthetic ground motions. Results on a 4-span Gerber bridge showcase the suitability of the framework for describing life-cycle fragility, and its capacity for embedding in advanced algorithmic decision-making workflows is discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLife-Cycle of Structures and Infrastructure Systems
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the eight international symposium on life-cycle civil engineering (IALCCE 2023)
EditorsFabio Biondini, Dan M. Frangopol
PublisherTaylor and Francis
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-003-32302-0
Publication statusPublished - 2023
EventIALCCE 2023: Eighth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering - Leonardo campus of Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
Duration: 2 Jun 20236 Jun 2023


ConferenceIALCCE 2023
Internet address

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