## Abstract

We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem the modeled investment willingness under the Bayesian decision theory is minimally three times higher compared to the investment willingness under either the expected outcome or the expected utility theories, where it is noted that the estimates of the latter two theories seem to be unrealistically low.

Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering: 35th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, MaxEnt 2015 |

Publisher | American Institute of Physics |

Number of pages | 7 |

Volume | 1757 |

ISBN (Electronic) | 9780735414150 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 2016 |

Event | 35th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering - Potsdam, United States Duration: 19 Jul 2015 → 24 Jul 2015 Conference number: 35 |

### Conference

Conference | 35th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering |
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Abbreviated title | MaxEnt 2015 |

Country/Territory | United States |

City | Potsdam |

Period | 19/07/15 → 24/07/15 |