Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

A.M. Hanea, G.F. Nane, B.A. Wielicki, R.M. Cooke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
32 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period length should be modelled together in order to understand the intricacies of the underlying processes. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to connect all the above-mentioned pieces in a climate trend uncertainty quantification framework. Inference in such models allows us to observe some seemingly nonsensical outcomes. We argue that they must be pondered rather than discarded until we understand how they arise. We would like to stress that the main focus of this paper is the use of BNs in complex probabilistic settings rather than the application itself.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-16
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Risk Research
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • Climate sensitivity
  • discordant agreement
  • negative learning
  • obsolescence

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