### Abstract

Computational fluid dynamics analyses of high-Reynolds-number flows mostly rely on the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations. The associated closure models are based on multiple simplifying assumptions and involve numerous empirical closure coefficients, which are calibrated on a set of simple reference flows. Predicting new flows using a single closure model with nominal values for the closure coefficients may lead to biased predictions. Bayesian model-scenario averaging is a statistical technique providing an optimal way to combine the predictions of several competing models calibrated on various sets of data (scenarios). The method allows a stochastic estimate of a quantity of interest in an unmeasured prediction scenario to be obtain by 1) propagating posterior probability distributions of the parameters obtained for multiple calibration scenarios, and 2) computing a weighted posterior predictive distribution. Although step 2 has a negligible computational cost, step 1 requires a large number of samples of the solver. To enable the application of the proposed approach to computationally expensive flow configurations, a modified formulation is used where a maximum posterior probability approximation is used to drastically reduce the computational burden. The predictive capability of the proposed simplified approach is assessed for two-dimensional separated and three-dimensional compressible flows.

Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 2018-2029 |

Number of pages | 12 |

Journal | AIAA Journal |

Volume | 56 |

Issue number | 5 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 2018 |

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## Cite this

*AIAA Journal*,

*56*(5), 2018-2029. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.J056287