Behavior-based Predictive Safety Analytics: Pilot study

This report gives an overview of the main findings from the Behavior-based Predictive Safety Analytics – Pilot Study project. The main objective of the project was to investigate the possibilities of developing statistical models predicting individual driver crash involvement based on individual driving style, demographic and behavioral history variables, using large sets of naturalistic driving data. The project was designed as a pilot project with the objective of providing the basis for a future more comprehensive research effort. Based on Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP2) data, a subset of behavior and crash data including 2,458 drivers was created for analysis. The data were analyzed to investigate to what extent these drivers were differentially involved in crashes and near crashes, to what extent this was associated with individual characteristics, and if it is possible to predict individual drivers’ crash and near crash involvement based on variables representing individual characteristics. The results clearly demonstrated the presence of differential crash and near crash involvement and showed significant associations between enduring personal factors and crash involvement. Moreover, logistic regression and random forest classifiers were relatively successful in predicting crash and near crash involvement based on individual characteristics, but the ability to specifically predict involvement in crashes was more limited.