Calibrating Simulation Models with Sparse Data: Counterfeit Supply Chains During Covid-19

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

22 Downloads (Pure)


COVID-19 related crimes like counterfeit Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) involve complex supply chains with partly unobservable behavior and sparse data, making it challenging to construct a reliable simulation model. Model calibration can help with this, as it is the process of tuning and estimating the model parameters with observed data of the system. A subset of model calibration techniques seems to be able to deal with sparse data in other fields: Genetic Algorithms and Bayesian Inference. However, it is unknown how these techniques perform when accurately calibrating simulation models with sparse data. This research analyzes the quality-of-fit of these two model calibration techniques for a counterfeit PPE simulation model given an increasing degree of data sparseness. The results demonstrate that these techniques are suitable for calibrating a linear supply chain model with randomly missing values. Further research should focus on other techniques, larger set of models, and structural uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
EditorsB. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C.G. Corlu, L.H. Lee, E.P. Chew, T. Roeder, P. Lendermann
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9798350309713
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022 - Guilin, China
Duration: 11 Dec 202214 Dec 2022

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)0891-7736


Conference2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


Dive into the research topics of 'Calibrating Simulation Models with Sparse Data: Counterfeit Supply Chains During Covid-19'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this