Capacity-Learning Paradox: How Hong Kong and Singapore's Crisis Responses Shape and Are Shaped by Policy Capacities

This study examines the paradoxical relationship between policy learning and capacity: governments need certain capacities to learn effectively, yet these same capacities often emerge from previous learning experiences. Through a comparative analysis of Hong Kong and Singapore's responses to SARS and COVID-19, we demonstrate how policy learning requires and manifests as enhanced analytical, operational, and political capacities. Our research reveals three key findings. First, learning outcomes materialize as enhanced capacities rather than just cognitive shifts and accumulated knowledge, as evidenced by both cities' institutional developments following SARS. Second, the effectiveness of learning processes depends heavily on existing capacities, particularly political capacity, which enables or constrains the deployment of analytical capacities. Third, capacity development is not linear—while both cities addressed many capacity gaps identified during SARS, COVID-19 exposed new vulnerabilities in areas like cross-border coordination and inclusive crisis management. These findings advance theoretical understanding of policy learning by showing how it manifests through changes in capacities. They also highlight the interdependence of different capacity types, particularly how political capacity enables or constrains the effectiveness of analytical and operational capabilities. For practitioners, our analysis emphasizes the importance of balanced capacity development and maintaining strong political trust alongside technical capabilities for effective crisis management.