Case Study: Zutphen: Estimates of levee system reliability

Kathryn Roscoe

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Estimates of levee system reliability can conflict with experience and intuition. For example, a very high failure probability may be computed while no evidence of failure has been observed, or a very low failure probability when signs of failure have been detected. This conflict results in skepticism about the computed failure probabilities and an (understandable) unwillingness to make important management decisions based upon them. Bayesian networks (BNs) are useful in these circumstances because they allow us to use observations to improve our reliability estimates quantitatively.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIntegral Design of Multifunctional Flood Defenses
Subtitle of host publicationMultidisciplinary Approaches and Examples
EditorsBaukje Kothuis, Matthijs Kok
PublisherDelft University Publishers
ISBN (Print)978-94-6186-808-4
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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    Roscoe, K. (2017). Case Study: Zutphen: Estimates of levee system reliability. In B. Kothuis, & M. Kok (Eds.), Integral Design of Multifunctional Flood Defenses: Multidisciplinary Approaches and Examples (pp. 46-49). Delft University Publishers.