Characterization of Long-period Ship Wave Loading and Vessel Speed for Risk Assessment for Rock Groyne Designs via Extreme Value Analysis

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Abstract

During the last two decades, increasing vessel size in major German estuaries has led to the significant change of the local loading regime i.e. increased importance of ship-induced waves and currents. As a consequence, the intensity of ship-induced loads has increased considerably, resulting in damage to rock structures such as revetments, training walls, and groynes. Research into the causes of rock structure deterioration by the Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (BAW) has shown that for large ships in relatively narrow waterways, the long-period primary ship wave loading has become the most prescient factor for rock structure damage. Looking into the future, it can be expected that the increase in the vessel dimensions will lead to an increase in the ship-wave loading. For this reason, analysing long-term changing trends of long-period ship waves and vessel speed to understand the wave-structure interaction is of significant importance. In this study, the stochastic characterization of long-period primary wave height, drawdown, and speed of the vessel through the water at Juelssand in the Lower Elbe Estuary was analysed via extreme value analysis and copula modeling, and the bivariate return periods were calculated. The one-parameter bivariate copula was utilized to analyse the data. The dependence pattern between the variables was investigated using five parametric copula families: Gaussian, Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, and student's t.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
EditorsBruno Castanier, Marko Cepin, David Bigaud, Christophe Berenguer
PublisherResearch Publishing Services
Pages2525-2532
Number of pages8
ISBN (Print)978-981-18-2016-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event31st European Safety and Reliability Conference - Angers, France
Duration: 19 Sept 202123 Sept 2021

Conference

Conference31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated titleESREL 2021
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityAngers
Period19/09/2123/09/21

Bibliographical note

Accepted Author Manuscript

Keywords

  • Bivariate copula
  • Extreme value analysis
  • Juelssand
  • Long-period ship wave
  • Rock groyne
  • Wave-structure interaction

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