Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Gord Stephen; Simon H. Tindemans; John Fazio; Chris J. Dent; Armando Figueroa Acevedo; Bagen Bagen; Alex Crawford; Andreas Klaube; Douglas Logan; Daniel Burke

doi:10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810615

Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Gord Stephen, Simon H. Tindemans, John Fazio, Chris J. Dent, Armando Figueroa Acevedo, Bagen Bagen, Alex Crawford, Andreas Klaube, Douglas Logan, Daniel Burke

Intelligent Electrical Power Grids

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

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Abstract

The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk. However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambiguities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall duration, that a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target, and that exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to help explain each of these points

Original language	English
Number of pages	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810615
Publication status	Published - 2022
Event	PMAPS 2022: The 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems - Online at Manchester, United Kingdom Duration: 12 Jun 2022 → 15 Jun 2022 Conference number: 17th

Conference

Conference	PMAPS 2022
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Online at Manchester
Period	12/06/22 → 15/06/22

Keywords

probabilistic assessment
power system planning
LOLE
risk metrics
resource adequacy

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10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810615

RAWG_LOLE_Interpretation(7)Accepted author manuscript, 136 KB

Cite this

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title = "Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric",

abstract = "The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk. However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambiguities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall duration, that a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target, and that exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to help explain each of these points ",

keywords = "probabilistic assessment, power system planning, LOLE, risk metrics, resource adequacy",

author = "Gord Stephen and Tindemans, {Simon H.} and John Fazio and Dent, {Chris J.} and {Figueroa Acevedo}, Armando and Bagen Bagen and Alex Crawford and Andreas Klaube and Douglas Logan and Daniel Burke",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810615",

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AU - Stephen, Gord

AU - Tindemans, Simon H.

AU - Fazio, John

AU - Dent, Chris J.

AU - Figueroa Acevedo, Armando

AU - Bagen, Bagen

AU - Crawford, Alex

AU - Klaube, Andreas

AU - Logan, Douglas

AU - Burke, Daniel

N1 - Conference code: 17th

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk. However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambiguities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall duration, that a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target, and that exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to help explain each of these points

AB - The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk. However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambiguities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall duration, that a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target, and that exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to help explain each of these points

KW - probabilistic assessment

KW - power system planning

KW - LOLE

KW - risk metrics

KW - resource adequacy

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M3 - Paper

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Y2 - 12 June 2022 through 15 June 2022

ER -

Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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