TY - JOUR
T1 - Combining expert knowledge and local data for improved service life modeling of water supply networks
AU - Scholten, Lisa
AU - Scheidegger, Andreas
AU - Reichert, Peter
AU - Maurer, Max
PY - 2013/4/1
Y1 - 2013/4/1
N2 - The presented approach aims to overcome the scarce data problem in service life modeling of water networks by combining subjective expert knowledge and local replacement data. A procedure to elicit imprecise quantile estimates of survival functions from experts, considering common cognitive biases, was developed and applied. The individual expert priors of the parameters of the service life distribution are obtained by regression over the stated distribution quantiles and aggregated into a single prior distribution. Furthermore, a likelihood function for the commonly encountered censored and truncated pipe replacement data is formulated. The suitability of the suggested Bayesian approach based on elicitation data from eight experts and real network data is demonstrated. Robust parameter estimates could be derived in data situations where frequentist maximum likelihood estimation is unsatisfactory, and to show how the consideration of imprecision and in-between-variance of experts improves posterior inference.
AB - The presented approach aims to overcome the scarce data problem in service life modeling of water networks by combining subjective expert knowledge and local replacement data. A procedure to elicit imprecise quantile estimates of survival functions from experts, considering common cognitive biases, was developed and applied. The individual expert priors of the parameters of the service life distribution are obtained by regression over the stated distribution quantiles and aggregated into a single prior distribution. Furthermore, a likelihood function for the commonly encountered censored and truncated pipe replacement data is formulated. The suitability of the suggested Bayesian approach based on elicitation data from eight experts and real network data is demonstrated. Robust parameter estimates could be derived in data situations where frequentist maximum likelihood estimation is unsatisfactory, and to show how the consideration of imprecision and in-between-variance of experts improves posterior inference.
KW - Bayesian inference
KW - Expert aggregation
KW - Expert knowledge elicitation
KW - Scarce data
KW - Service life modeling
KW - Water supply network
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84874515592&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.013
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.013
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84874515592
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 42
SP - 1
EP - 16
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
ER -