Crime and Inflation in U. S. Cities

Richard Rosenfeld, Matt Vogel, Timothy McCuddy

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)
    270 Downloads (Pure)


    The current study replicates prior national-level research on the relationship between crimes committed for monetary gain and inflation in a sample of 17 U. S. cities between 1960 and 2013. Methods A random coefficients model is used to estimate the effects of inflation on the change in acquisitive crime over time, controlling for other influences. Results The estimates yield significant effects of inflation on acquisitive crime rates in the 17 cities. City-specific coefficients reveal nontrivial variation across the cities in the significance, size, and impact of inflation on acquisitive crime.Conclusions Continued low inflation rates should restrain future crime increases in many US cities. U. S. monetary policy should be evaluated with respect to its effect on crime.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)195-210
    Number of pages16
    JournalJournal of Quantitative Criminology
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2019


    • Acquisitive crime
    • Inflation
    • Random coefficient models

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