TY - JOUR
T1 - Decarbonizing a Polish district heating network using ambient and waste heat
T2 - A techno-economic analysis considering uncertainties in future energy prices and availability
AU - Grecu, Nyasha
AU - Strömer, Stefan
AU - Schmidt, Ralf Roman
AU - Maggauer, Klara
AU - Marx, Nicolas
AU - Mayr, Bernhard
AU - Liu, Wen
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - District heating (DH) systems can contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the heating sector by enabling the implementation of sustainable heating solutions such as ambient heat (AH) and waste heat (WH). However, these sources are subject to economic risks arising from uncertainties in future energy prices and availability. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis for a decarbonized DH network for a city in Poland, using a simulation model that evaluates levelized cost of heat (LCOH) across a wide range of heat supply portfolios including AH and WH sources. It considers uncertainties related to energy price and WH cessation scenarios as well as sensitivities related to WH prices, heat demand, and biomass availability. Results show that the DH system configuration plays a key role in determining the average cost, due to the relatively large share of CAPEX in the LCOH calculations, underscoring the importance of accurate investment cost assumptions. Further important factors are the development of the heat demand and the availability of biomass. The presence of low-cost industrial WH is beneficial. In general, there is a trade-off: minimizing average cost results in a higher economic risk.
AB - District heating (DH) systems can contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the heating sector by enabling the implementation of sustainable heating solutions such as ambient heat (AH) and waste heat (WH). However, these sources are subject to economic risks arising from uncertainties in future energy prices and availability. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis for a decarbonized DH network for a city in Poland, using a simulation model that evaluates levelized cost of heat (LCOH) across a wide range of heat supply portfolios including AH and WH sources. It considers uncertainties related to energy price and WH cessation scenarios as well as sensitivities related to WH prices, heat demand, and biomass availability. Results show that the DH system configuration plays a key role in determining the average cost, due to the relatively large share of CAPEX in the LCOH calculations, underscoring the importance of accurate investment cost assumptions. Further important factors are the development of the heat demand and the availability of biomass. The presence of low-cost industrial WH is beneficial. In general, there is a trade-off: minimizing average cost results in a higher economic risk.
KW - Ambient heat
KW - Deterministic sampling
KW - District heating
KW - Economic risk assessment
KW - Uncertainty
KW - Waste heat
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105006770768&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136641
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136641
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105006770768
SN - 0360-5442
VL - 329
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
M1 - 136641
ER -
