Decision-Making in Early Internationalization: A Structured Expert Judgement Approach

Michał Zdziarski, Gabriela F. Nane, Grzegorz Król, Katarzyna Kowalczyk, Anna O. Kuźmińska

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeChapterScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil. Sixteen participants of an Executive MBA program acted as experts and underwent the procedure for eliciting their judgements. The performance of experts was quantified in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness, which were combined to provide a performance-based weight for each expert according to Classical Model. The combination of weighted expert judgements led to improved statistical accuracy and informativeness of the forecast. The procedure demonstrates how entrepreneurs can take advantage of expert knowledge in deciding about risky endeavours when lacking their own experiences and reliable data that can guide their choices.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationExpert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
EditorsA.M. Hanea, G.F. Nane, T. Bedford, S. French
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer
Chapter23
Pages503-520
Number of pages18
Edition1
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-46474-5
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-46473-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Publication series

NameInternational Series in Operations Research and Management Science
Volume293
ISSN (Print)0884-8289
ISSN (Electronic)2214-7934

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • International new venture
  • Internationalization
  • Location choice
  • Structured expert judgement

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