TY - JOUR
T1 - Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning
AU - Hadjisotiriou, Sophie
AU - Marchau, Vincent
AU - Walker, Warren
AU - Rikkert, Marcel Olde
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on ‘prepare, monitor, and adapt’, enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.
AB - Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on ‘prepare, monitor, and adapt’, enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Policymaking
KW - Reliable organizations
KW - Systems analysis
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85158049967&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831
DO - 10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85158049967
SN - 0168-8510
VL - 133
JO - Health Policy
JF - Health Policy
M1 - 104831
ER -