Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik van Heerden; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Vassilis Daioglou; Thomas Le Gallic; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Alice Di Bella; Francesco Pietro Colelli; Johannes Emmerling; Panagiotis Fragkos; Robin Hasse; Johanna Hoppe; Paul Kishimoto; Florian Leblanc; Julien Lefèvre; Gunnar Luderer; Giacomo Marangoni; Alessio Mastrucci; Hazel Pettifor; Robert Pietzcker; Pedro Rochedo; Bas van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Charlie Wilson; Sonia Yeh; Eleftheria Zisarou; Detlef van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik van Heerden^*, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch^*, Vassilis Daioglou, Thomas Le Gallic, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli, Johannes Emmerling, Panagiotis Fragkos, Robin Hasse, Johanna Hoppe, Paul Kishimoto, Florian Leblanc, Julien Lefèvre, Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, Alessio Mastrucci, Hazel Pettifor, Robert Pietzcker, Pedro RochedoBas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Charlie Wilson, Sonia Yeh, Eleftheria Zisarou, Detlef van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO₂ emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Original language	English
Article number	3077
Pages (from-to)	380-394
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	10
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1
Publication status	Published - 2025

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van Heerden, R., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Daioglou, V., Le Gallic, T., Baptista, L. B., Di Bella, A., Colelli, F. P., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Kishimoto, P., Leblanc, F., Lefèvre, J., Luderer, G., Marangoni, G., Mastrucci, A., Pettifor, H., Pietzcker, R., ... van Vuuren, D. (2025). Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050. Nature Energy, 10(3), 380-394. Article 3077. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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abstract = "Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.",

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van Heerden, R, Edelenbosch, OY, Daioglou, V, Le Gallic, T, Baptista, LB, Di Bella, A, Colelli, FP, Emmerling, J, Fragkos, P, Hasse, R, Hoppe, J, Kishimoto, P, Leblanc, F, Lefèvre, J, Luderer, G, Marangoni, G, Mastrucci, A, Pettifor, H, Pietzcker, R, Rochedo, P, van Ruijven, B, Schaeffer, R, Wilson, C, Yeh, S, Zisarou, E & van Vuuren, D 2025, 'Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050', Nature Energy, vol. 10, no. 3, 3077, pp. 380-394. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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AU - van Heerden, Rik

AU - Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.

AU - Daioglou, Vassilis

AU - Le Gallic, Thomas

AU - Baptista, Luiz Bernardo

AU - Di Bella, Alice

AU - Colelli, Francesco Pietro

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Fragkos, Panagiotis

AU - Hasse, Robin

AU - Hoppe, Johanna

AU - Kishimoto, Paul

AU - Leblanc, Florian

AU - Lefèvre, Julien

AU - Luderer, Gunnar

AU - Marangoni, Giacomo

AU - Mastrucci, Alessio

AU - Pettifor, Hazel

AU - Pietzcker, Robert

AU - Rochedo, Pedro

AU - van Ruijven, Bas

AU - Schaeffer, Roberto

AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Yeh, Sonia

AU - Zisarou, Eleftheria

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

PY - 2025

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AB - Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

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EP - 394

JO - Nature Energy

JF - Nature Energy

IS - 3

M1 - 3077

ER -

Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

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