Distributionally robust last-train coordination planning problem with dwell time adjustment strategy

Aiming to increase successful transfers at stations for late-night passengers, we first propose an efficient dwell time adjustment strategy for the last-train coordination planning problem under transfer-passenger flows uncertainty. Unlike the traditional robust optimization model, we present a novel distributionally robust chance-constrained program to model this problem, where the probability distributions of the uncertain parameters are only partially available. By introducing a pessimistic ambiguous chance constraint, the proposed distributionally robust model guarantees that the probability of satisfying the service-oriented objective, i.e., maximum successful transfer-passenger flows in the whole subway system is larger than a predetermined confidence level in the worst case. We then draw the connection of the distributionally robust model with the traditional robust optimization model, and show that the proposed model can be interpreted as a generalized version of the robust optimization model. We further propose a safe tractable approximation method to reformulate the original model as a mixed-integer second-order conic programming under the bounded-perturbation ambiguous set, which can be solved to optimality on only small instances by the CPLEX. Hence, we develop a tabu search heuristic algorithm to obtain high-quality solutions for large-sized instances. We also use local search as a baseline algorithm to observe the improvements of the tabu search algorithm. Finally, we illustrate the superiority of the developed model on the Nanjing and Beijing subway networks and compare the performance of the proposed algorithms.