Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?

Marjolein H.J. Van Huijgevoort; Henny A.J. Van Lanen; Adriaan J. Teuling; Remko Uijlenhoet

Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?

Marjolein H.J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

Abstract

Large-scale hydrological models are used to determine drought on a global scale. However, it is important to know how well these large-scale models can reproduce major drought events in the past before projections can be made. This study presents a comparison between a multi-model ensemble and reported drought events in the literature to assess the performance of large-scale models. Major drought events in the selected period (1963-2000) were reproduced by the model ensemble median, although the duration and spatial extent differed substantially from reported events. The major drought events are caused by precipitation deficits linked to oscillations in climatic patterns, such as ENSO. This implies that major drought events were simulated if these were included in the forcing data. Spatial extent and duration of simulated drought events differed from extent and duration of reported ones due to a fast runoff response in some models.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Hydrology in a Changing World
Subtitle of host publication	Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014
Editors	Eric Servat, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Alain Dezetter, Gregor Laaha, Jean-Francois Boyer, Denis Ruelland, Siegfried Demuth, Gil Mahe, Trevor M. Daniell, Henny A. J. van Lanen
Publisher	Copernicus
Pages	66-71
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Electronic)	9781907161414
Publication status	Published - 2014
Externally published	Yes
Event	7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014 - Montpellier, France Duration: 7 Oct 2014 → 10 Oct 2014

Publication series

Name	IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Volume	363
ISSN (Print)	0144-7815

Conference

Conference	7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014
Country/Territory	France
City	Montpellier
Period	7/10/14 → 10/10/14

Keywords

Global
Hydrological drought
Large-scale models
Runoff

Cite this

Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Teuling, A. J., & Uijlenhoet, R. (2014). Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? In E. Servat, J.-E. Paturel, A. Dezetter, G. Laaha, J.-F. Boyer, D. Ruelland, S. Demuth, G. Mahe, T. M. Daniell, & H. A. J. van Lanen (Eds.), Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014 (pp. 66-71). (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports; Vol. 363). Copernicus.

Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H.J. ; Van Lanen, Henny A.J. ; Teuling, Adriaan J. et al. / Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. editor / Eric Servat ; Jean-Emmanuel Paturel ; Alain Dezetter ; Gregor Laaha ; Jean-Francois Boyer ; Denis Ruelland ; Siegfried Demuth ; Gil Mahe ; Trevor M. Daniell ; Henny A. J. van Lanen. Copernicus, 2014. pp. 66-71 (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports).

@inproceedings{c88d217ae02c4c519ded08011a74c358,

title = "Do large-scale models capture reported drought events?",

abstract = "Large-scale hydrological models are used to determine drought on a global scale. However, it is important to know how well these large-scale models can reproduce major drought events in the past before projections can be made. This study presents a comparison between a multi-model ensemble and reported drought events in the literature to assess the performance of large-scale models. Major drought events in the selected period (1963-2000) were reproduced by the model ensemble median, although the duration and spatial extent differed substantially from reported events. The major drought events are caused by precipitation deficits linked to oscillations in climatic patterns, such as ENSO. This implies that major drought events were simulated if these were included in the forcing data. Spatial extent and duration of simulated drought events differed from extent and duration of reported ones due to a fast runoff response in some models.",

keywords = "Global, Hydrological drought, Large-scale models, Runoff",

author = "{Van Huijgevoort}, {Marjolein H.J.} and {Van Lanen}, {Henny A.J.} and Teuling, {Adriaan J.} and Remko Uijlenhoet",

year = "2014",

language = "English",

series = "IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports",

publisher = "Copernicus",

pages = "66--71",

editor = "Eric Servat and Jean-Emmanuel Paturel and Alain Dezetter and Gregor Laaha and Jean-Francois Boyer and Denis Ruelland and Siegfried Demuth and Gil Mahe and Daniell, {Trevor M.} and {van Lanen}, {Henny A. J.}",

booktitle = "Hydrology in a Changing World",

address = "Germany",

note = "7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014 ; Conference date: 07-10-2014 Through 10-10-2014",

}

Van Huijgevoort, MHJ, Van Lanen, HAJ, Teuling, AJ & Uijlenhoet, R 2014, Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? in E Servat, J-E Paturel, A Dezetter, G Laaha, J-F Boyer, D Ruelland, S Demuth, G Mahe, TM Daniell & HAJ van Lanen (eds), Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports, vol. 363, Copernicus, pp. 66-71, 7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, 7/10/14.

Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? / Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H.J.; Van Lanen, Henny A.J.; Teuling, Adriaan J. et al.
Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014. ed. / Eric Servat; Jean-Emmanuel Paturel; Alain Dezetter; Gregor Laaha; Jean-Francois Boyer; Denis Ruelland; Siegfried Demuth; Gil Mahe; Trevor M. Daniell; Henny A. J. van Lanen. Copernicus, 2014. p. 66-71 (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports; Vol. 363).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review