Does social capital affect residents' propensity to move from restructured neighbourhoods?

In the major Dutch cities, social rented housing in post-war neighbourhoods is demolished and largely replaced by more expensive owner-occupied and rental housing. Through residential mobility, these measures can trigger substantial population changes. In two recently restructured neighbourhoods in the city of Rotterdam, we studied residents¿ social capital. Herewith, we distinguish between the stayers, movers and newcomers. In a neighbourhood context, social capital refers to the benefit of cursory interactions, shared norms, trust and collective action of residents. Survey data show that social capital is not only an asset of long-term stayers, but that in particular newcomers are relatively rich in social capital. The central question is this paper is: to what extent are residents¿ levels of social capital associated with the propensity leave the restructured neighbourhood? Especially for policymakers, knowledge of the stability of restructured neighbourhoods is important. A logistic regression analysis points out the predictors of the propensity to move within five years. After controlling for housing features and satisfaction as well as and neighbourhood satisfaction, social capital was no longer a significant predictor. Strikingly, the higher-income households (especially newcomers) report a significantly higher propensity to leave the restructured neighbourhood than stayers and movers. This runs counter to the policy goals of restructuring. Explanations and suggestions for further research are presented.