Driver influence on vehicle trajectory prediction

Drivers continually interact with other road users and use information from the road environment to make decisions to control their vehicle. A clear understanding of different parameters impacting this interaction can provide us with a new design approach for a more effective driver assistance system - a personalised trajectory prediction system. This paper highlights the influential factors on trajectory prediction system performance by (i) identifying driver behaviours impacting the trajectory prediction system; and (ii) analysing other contributing factors such as traffic density, secondary task, gender and age group. To explore the most influential contributing factors, we first train an interaction-aware trajectory prediction system using time-series data derived from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS). Prediction error is then analysed based on driver characteristics such as driver profile which is subjectively measured through self-reported questions, and driving performance which is based on evaluation of time-series information such as speed, acceleration, jerk, time, and space headway. The results show that prediction error significantly increased in the scenarios where the driver engaged in risky behaviour. Analysis shows that trajectory prediction system performance is also affected by factors such as traffic density, engagement in secondary tasks, driver gender and age group. We show that the driver profile, which is subjectively measured using self-reported questionnaires, is not as significant as the driving performance information, which is objectively measured and extracted during each specific driving scenario.