Dynamic Assessment of VCE-Induced Domino Effects

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeChapterScientificpeer-review


Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accidents such as the Jaipur explosion in 2005 manifest that VCEs may lead to unpredicted overpressures, resulting in catastrophic domino effects. Many attempts have been made to assess VCEs and the subsequent domino effects in the process and chemical industry, whereas little attention has been paid to the spatial–temporal evolution of VCEs. Thus, this chapter provides a dynamic methodology based on the discrete dynamic event tree to assess the likelihood of VCEs and possible subsequent domino effects. The developed methodology includes six steps: identification and characterization of loss of containment scenarios, analysis of vapor cloud dispersion, identification and characterization of ignition sources, explosion frequency assessment, overpressure calculation, and escalation assessment. Given a release scenario, by applying the developed methodology, we can obtain the probability of VCEs, the likelihood of domino effects, and the damage probabilities of installations exposed to overpressure.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIntegrating Safety and Security Management to Protect Chemical Industrial Areas from Domino Effects
Number of pages25
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-88911-1
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Publication series

NameSpringer Series in Reliability Engineering
ISSN (Print)1614-7839
ISSN (Electronic)2196-999X

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


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