Dynamic Graph Filters Networks: A Gray-box Model for Multistep Traffic Forecasting

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Abstract

Short-term traffic forecasting is one of the key functions in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). Recently, deep learning is drawing more attention in this field. However, how to develop a deep learning based traffic forecasting model that can dynamically extract explainable spatial correlations from traffic data is still a challenging issue. The difficulty mainly comes from the inconsistency between static model structures and the dynamic evolution of traffic conditions. To overcome this difficulty, we proposed a novel multistep speed forecasting model, Dynamic Graph Filters Networks (DGFN). The major contribution is that the regular pixel-wise dynamic convolution is extended to graph topology. DGFN has a simple recurrent cell structure where local area-wide graph convolutional kernels are dynamically computed from varying inputs. Experiments on ring freeways show that DGFN is able to precisely predict short-term evolution of traffic speed. Furthermore, we theoretically explain why DGFN is not a pure “black-box”, but a “gray-box” model that actually reduces entangled spatial and temporal features into one component representing dynamic spatial correlations. It permits tracking real-time interactions among adjacent links. DGFN has the potential to relate trained parameters in deep learning models with physical traffic variables.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
PublisherIEEE
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-7281-4149-7
ISBN (Print)978-1-7281-4150-3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
EventThe 23rd IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (IEEE ITSC 2020) - Rhodes, Greece
Duration: 20 Sep 202023 Sep 2020
https://www.ieee-itsc2020.org/

Publication series

Name2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2020

Conference

ConferenceThe 23rd IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (IEEE ITSC 2020)
CountryGreece
CityRhodes
Period20/09/2023/09/20
Internet address

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care

Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

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