Abstract
This paper presents a study carried out to first assess the impact of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on selected Caribbean ports, and thereafter, to examine how the ports can adapt in order to seize new opportunities created by the expansion. An applied case of long-term dynamic planning and flexibility in engineering design is presented for a new port terminal in Barranquilla, Colombia. Furthermore, this paper presents the results of a stochastic method for quantifying opportunities from containerized traffic using dynamic forecasting, real options analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation, within the framework and spirit of adaptive port planning under uncertainty.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Title of host publication | Ports 2019 |
Subtitle of host publication | Port Planning and Development - Papers from Sessions of the 15th Triennial International Conference |
Editors | Pooja Jain, William S. Stahlman |
Publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) |
Pages | 287-300 |
Number of pages | 14 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9780784482629 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2019 |
Event | 15th Triennial International Conference on Ports 2019: Port Planning and Development - Pittsburgh, United States Duration: 15 Sept 2019 → 18 Sept 2019 |
Conference
Conference | 15th Triennial International Conference on Ports 2019: Port Planning and Development |
---|---|
Country/Territory | United States |
City | Pittsburgh |
Period | 15/09/19 → 18/09/19 |
Bibliographical note
Accepted Author ManuscriptKeywords
- adaptive
- Dynamic Forecasting
- Dynamic planning
- flexibility
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- opportunities
- Real Options
- uncertainty