Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks Approach for Active Mode Traffic Prediction

Accurate short-term predictions of active mode traffic are crucial for effective urban traffic control and management, helping to reduce delays, stops, and improve travel time reliability, and optimize travel route choice. While most methods focus on motorized traffic, active modes like walking and cycling have been overlooked due to their complex dynamics and sensitivity to external factors like weather and individual choices, making them inherently less predictable. To address this, we propose a Dynamic Attention-based Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (DyASTGCN) model that incorporates the impact of weather on graph spatial correlations within the active mode traffic network. Additionally, we introduce a fusion approach to integrate various heterogeneous spatial correlations, aiming to represent the optimal spatial correlations within the active mode network. Experimental results demonstrate that weather changes have a lagging effect on traffic network spatial correlations. Specifically, active mode traffic demonstrates significant sensitivity to precipitation, with notable changes in spatial correlations occurring within 5 minutes. Conversely, it takes approximately 20 minutes for spatial correlations to respond to wind speed influences. By incorporating both precipitation and wind speed with a 20-minute lag, our model outperforms those using only one feature, achieving the best traffic prediction performance. Given the uncertain traffic state and highly sparse nature of active mode data, our fusion approach adeptly captures the essential spatial correlations required for accurate traffic flow prediction. This allows our model to better understand complex graph correlations and traffic patterns, improving prediction accuracy and offering valuable insights into active mode network dynamics.