TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic vulnerability assessment of process plants with respect to vapor cloud explosions
AU - Chen, Chao
AU - Khakzad, Nima
AU - Reniers, Genserik
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accidents in recent years such as the Buncefield accident in 2005 indicate that VCEs in process plants may lead to unpredicted overpressures, resulting in catastrophic disasters. Although a lot of attempts have been done to assess VCEs in process plants, little attention has been paid to the spatial-temporal evolution of VCEs. This study, therefore, aims to develop a dynamic methodology based on discrete dynamic event tree to assess the likelihood of VCEs and the vulnerability of installations. The developed methodology consists of six steps: (i) identification of hazardous installations and potential loss of containment (LOC), (ii) analysis of vapor cloud dispersion, (iii) identification and characterization of ignition sources, (iv) explosion frequency and delayed time assessment using the dynamic event tree, (v) overpressure calculation by the Multi-Energy method and (vi) damage assessment based on probit models. This methodology considers the time dependencies in vapor cloud dispersion and in the uncertainty of delayed ignitions. Application of the methodology to a case study shows that the methodology can reflect the characteristics of large VCEs and avoid underestimating the consequences. Besides, this study indicates that ignition control may be regarded as a delay measure, effective emergency actions are needed for preventing VCEs.
AB - Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accidents in recent years such as the Buncefield accident in 2005 indicate that VCEs in process plants may lead to unpredicted overpressures, resulting in catastrophic disasters. Although a lot of attempts have been done to assess VCEs in process plants, little attention has been paid to the spatial-temporal evolution of VCEs. This study, therefore, aims to develop a dynamic methodology based on discrete dynamic event tree to assess the likelihood of VCEs and the vulnerability of installations. The developed methodology consists of six steps: (i) identification of hazardous installations and potential loss of containment (LOC), (ii) analysis of vapor cloud dispersion, (iii) identification and characterization of ignition sources, (iv) explosion frequency and delayed time assessment using the dynamic event tree, (v) overpressure calculation by the Multi-Energy method and (vi) damage assessment based on probit models. This methodology considers the time dependencies in vapor cloud dispersion and in the uncertainty of delayed ignitions. Application of the methodology to a case study shows that the methodology can reflect the characteristics of large VCEs and avoid underestimating the consequences. Besides, this study indicates that ignition control may be regarded as a delay measure, effective emergency actions are needed for preventing VCEs.
KW - Dynamic event tree
KW - Process plants
KW - Spatial-temporal evolution
KW - Uncertainty modeling
KW - Vapor cloud explosion
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083291175&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106934
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106934
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85083291175
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 200
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 106934
ER -